ALLO 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-15 07:45 CST · 捉妖器
0.36105
-22.6% 24h
量 $111.9M
主跌·收网
继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/01 | 0.25161 | 0.26952 | 0.22552 | 0.2264 | -10.0% | 19.5% | 90,936K | 中阴 |
| 07/02 | 0.2264 | 0.3674 | 0.22389 | 0.33996 | +50.2% | 64.1% | 433,398K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.33997 | 0.38768 | 0.32123 | 0.34992 | +2.9% | 20.7% | 463,465K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/04 | 0.34991 | 0.37395 | 0.32568 | 0.35098 | +0.3% | 14.8% | 153,691K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/05 | 0.35097 | 0.38379 | 0.34606 | 0.36481 | +3.9% | 10.9% | 86,883K | 长上影 |
| 07/06 | 0.36471 | 0.4293 | 0.33586 | 0.42216 | +15.8% | 27.8% | 167,281K | 中阳 |
| 07/07 | 0.42199 | 0.43947 | 0.39421 | 0.39802 | -5.7% | 11.5% | 167,323K | |
| 07/08 | 0.39804 | 0.42098 | 0.3643 | 0.41488 | +4.2% | 15.6% | 112,245K | 长下影 |
| 07/09 | 0.41488 | 0.45906 | 0.3914 | 0.43652 | +5.2% | 17.3% | 125,771K | |
| 07/10 | 0.43652 | 0.445 | 0.39736 | 0.40333 | -7.6% | 12.0% | 60,596K | |
| 07/11 | 0.40333 | 0.42524 | 0.35712 | 0.36331 | -9.9% | 19.1% | 68,221K | |
| 07/12 | 0.36331 | 0.39468 | 0.33407 | 0.37319 | +2.7% | 18.1% | 141,679K | |
| 07/13 | 0.37319 | 0.53302 | 0.37135 | 0.47273 | +26.7% | 43.5% | 414,382K | 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/14 | 0.47274 | 0.47722 | 0.35621 | 0.36105 | -23.6% | 34.0% | 275,421K | 大阴 |
- 阴线吞噬前日阳线(看跌反转)
- 14日总涨幅+43%(上升趋势)
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/15 | $21.7M | |
| 06/16 | $21.1M | -2.7% |
| 06/17 | $20.6M | -2.6% |
| 06/18 | $20.1M | -2.5% |
| 06/19 | $21.4M | +6.7% |
| 06/20 | $21.5M | +0.6% |
| 06/21 | $21.7M | +0.6% |
| 06/22 | $21.3M | -1.7% |
| 06/23 | $23.2M | +9.0% |
| 06/24 | $22.6M | -2.3% |
| 06/25 | $21.4M | -5.4% |
| 06/26 | $20.6M | -3.8% |
| 06/27 | $17.3M | -16.1% |
| 06/28 | $19.5M | +12.7% |
| 06/29 | $18.6M | -4.7% |
| 06/30 | $17.9M | -3.8% |
| 07/01 | $15.3M | -14.2% |
| 07/02 | $13.7M | -10.9% |
| 07/03 | $20.8M | +52.2% |
| 07/04 | $20.9M | +0.4% |
| 07/05 | $20.4M | -2.2% |
| 07/06 | $21.1M | +3.1% |
| 07/07 | $23.7M | +12.7% |
| 07/08 | $21.2M | -10.6% |
| 07/09 | $21.6M | +2.1% |
| 07/10 | $23.7M | +9.5% |
| 07/11 | $21.2M | -10.6% |
| 07/12 | $19.3M | -9.0% |
| 07/13 | $20.1M | +4.4% |
| 07/14 | $30.8M | +52.9% |
- 当前OI $30.8M,占近30日峰值的100%
- 近7天OI变化+45%
- OI快速增长——新仓持续涌入
- 最近1日OI变化+53%
- 4h粒度:近24h OI加速下跌-30%
- 价跌OI涨:做空力量在加大
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 75 | 63 | 136 | 214 | 0.361873 | 0.368831 |
| 07/12 12:52 | 空 | 72 | 74 | 166 | 224 | 0.356747 | 0.364891 |
| 07/12 16:39 | 空 | 76 | 71 | 186 | 213 | 0.359011 | 0.362096 |
| 07/12 20:51 | 多 | 63 | 83 | 178 | 227 | 0.358562 | 0.358804 |
| 07/13 01:06 | 空 | 68 | 79 | 195 | 200 | 0.357092 | 0.356976 |
| 07/13 05:52 | 空 | 66 | 81 | 203 | 207 | 0.363628 | 0.36493 |
| 07/13 10:52 | 空 | 74 | 87 | 229 | 212 | 0.378471 | 0.373784 |
| 07/13 15:22 | 多 | 88 | 78 | 275 | 197 | 0.387171 | 0.388656 |
| 07/13 20:06 | 多 | 90 | 82 | 279 | 352 | 0.439267 | 0.436368 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 多 | 97 | 84 | 287 | 394 | 0.447413 | 0.439554 |
| 07/14 05:07 | 多 | 100 | 81 | 277 | 424 | 0.449818 | 0.462563 |
| 07/14 09:37 | 多 | 102 | 82 | 302 | 442 | 0.459871 | 0.441016 |
| 07/14 14:37 | 空 | 118 | 75 | 301 | 462 | 0.469739 | 0.43118 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 空 | 119 | 71 | 331 | 369 | 0.44818 | 0.416712 |
| 07/14 23:37 | 空 | 100 | 82 | 323 | 296 | 0.401042 | 0.399696 |
- 数据跨度63小时(239个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 75→100(+25)
- 空头巨鲸 63→82(+19)
- 多头交易员 136→323(+187)
- 空头交易员 214→296(+82)
- 多头成本 0.3619→0.401(+10.8%)
- 空头成本 0.3688→0.3997(+8.4%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -10.0%
- 空头浮盈亏 +9.7%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0030% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0010% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | -0.0010% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | -0.0052% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-14 12:06 @ 0.3906 · 至今-7.5%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位70%
机会裁决SHORT · 继续做空
周期第1轮 · 10.77×
垂直爆发已疯 (204%)
OI$30.8M (峰值100%)
距本轮峰值35.5% · 36天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度26%
深盘锚定74%
类比≈UAI 见顶后85天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升11倍(垂直爆发204%),见顶后36天已崩36%,现价仍是最初起点的6.9倍
- 距本轮峰值36%,破位下行
- OI 24h崩塌-30%
- 费率已回中性/转正-0.005%
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.23M,占58%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 崩后主跌:持仓量在崩、确认是真下跌(不是洗盘),可以正当做空;加仓到 60-80%:收网确认,已有安全垫,回弹处加
六、综合研判
信号统计: 2个看涨 vs 3个看跌
看涨信号
- 14日总涨幅+43%(上升趋势)
- OI快速增长——新仓持续涌入
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 阴线吞噬前日阳线(看跌反转)
- 价跌OI涨:做空力量在加大
- 阶段裁决:继续做空
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场