BEAT 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-15 07:44 CST · 捉妖器
2.497
-4.7% 24h
量 $19.0M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/01 | 2.909 | 3.674 | 2.218 | 2.891 | -0.6% | 65.6% | 61,068K | 十字星 长上影 ★新高 |
| 07/02 | 2.891 | 3.265 | 2.554 | 3.263 | +12.9% | 27.8% | 22,606K | 中阳 |
| 07/03 | 3.263 | 3.291 | 2.616 | 2.659 | -18.5% | 25.8% | 17,088K | 中阴 |
| 07/04 | 2.659 | 3.114 | 2.571 | 2.884 | +8.5% | 21.1% | 14,479K | |
| 07/05 | 2.883 | 2.919 | 2.671 | 2.801 | -2.8% | 9.3% | 8,339K | 长下影 |
| 07/06 | 2.801 | 2.813 | 2.344 | 2.574 | -8.1% | 20.0% | 12,253K | |
| 07/07 | 2.574 | 2.727 | 2.354 | 2.438 | -5.3% | 15.8% | 10,045K | |
| 07/08 | 2.438 | 2.486 | 2.052 | 2.352 | -3.5% | 21.2% | 12,351K | 长下影 |
| 07/09 | 2.351 | 2.36 | 2.104 | 2.204 | -6.3% | 12.2% | 8,053K | |
| 07/10 | 2.204 | 2.725 | 2.148 | 2.683 | +21.7% | 26.9% | 17,847K | 大阳 |
| 07/11 | 2.684 | 3.057 | 2.226 | 2.348 | -12.5% | 37.3% | 59,362K | 中阴 |
| 07/12 | 2.348 | 2.927 | 2.166 | 2.55 | +8.6% | 35.1% | 39,958K | |
| 07/13 | 2.551 | 2.716 | 2.426 | 2.645 | +3.7% | 12.0% | 15,025K | |
| 07/14 | 2.644 | 2.691 | 2.488 | 2.497 | -5.6% | 8.2% | 7,224K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/15 | $43.9M | |
| 06/16 | $31.5M | -28.3% |
| 06/17 | $20.1M | -36.1% |
| 06/18 | $18.5M | -7.8% |
| 06/19 | $14.0M | -24.4% |
| 06/20 | $13.7M | -2.2% |
| 06/21 | $12.8M | -6.9% |
| 06/22 | $13.6M | +6.6% |
| 06/23 | $12.2M | -10.6% |
| 06/24 | $17.0M | +40.0% |
| 06/25 | $12.6M | -26.3% |
| 06/26 | $14.3M | +13.9% |
| 06/27 | $17.0M | +18.8% |
| 06/28 | $17.3M | +1.5% |
| 06/29 | $17.8M | +3.0% |
| 06/30 | $17.9M | +0.8% |
| 07/01 | $18.3M | +1.9% |
| 07/02 | $16.1M | -11.8% |
| 07/03 | $18.3M | +13.4% |
| 07/04 | $14.3M | -21.9% |
| 07/05 | $15.2M | +6.6% |
| 07/06 | $14.6M | -3.7% |
| 07/07 | $13.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/08 | $12.8M | -7.5% |
| 07/09 | $12.4M | -2.6% |
| 07/10 | $11.6M | -6.8% |
| 07/11 | $15.2M | +31.0% |
| 07/12 | $14.1M | -7.0% |
| 07/13 | $14.9M | +5.7% |
| 07/14 | $14.6M | -2.0% |
- 当前OI $14.6M,占近30日峰值的33%
- 近7天OI变化+15%
- 最近1日OI变化-2%
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 空 | 82 | 54 | 238 | 261 | 2.695 | 2.814 |
| 07/12 12:52 | 空 | 59 | 77 | 211 | 297 | 2.697 | 2.799 |
| 07/12 16:39 | 多 | 76 | 57 | 203 | 242 | 2.612 | 2.762 |
| 07/12 20:51 | 多 | 76 | 58 | 187 | 257 | 2.604 | 2.798 |
| 07/13 01:06 | 多 | 79 | 50 | 202 | 235 | 2.694 | 2.639 |
| 07/13 05:52 | 多 | 73 | 60 | 193 | 248 | 2.666 | 2.649 |
| 07/13 10:52 | 多 | 90 | 55 | 225 | 232 | 2.725 | 2.736 |
| 07/13 15:22 | 多 | 66 | 76 | 205 | 195 | 2.597 | 2.692 |
| 07/13 20:06 | 多 | 64 | 73 | 191 | 184 | 2.591 | 2.63 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 空 | 61 | 77 | 186 | 173 | 2.583 | 2.623 |
| 07/14 05:07 | 多 | 71 | 65 | 171 | 158 | 2.553 | 2.609 |
| 07/14 09:37 | 多 | 71 | 61 | 162 | 144 | 2.547 | 2.582 |
| 07/14 14:37 | 空 | 63 | 71 | 141 | 153 | 2.605 | 2.577 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 多 | 75 | 59 | 150 | 130 | 2.611 | 2.634 |
| 07/14 23:37 | 多 | 74 | 58 | 162 | 121 | 2.582 | 2.623 |
- 数据跨度63小时(239个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 82→74(-8)
- 空头巨鲸 54→58(+4)
- 多头交易员 238→162(-76)
- 空头交易员 261→121(-140)
- 多头成本 2.695→2.582(-4.2%)
- 空头成本 2.814→2.623(-6.8%)
- 多头浮盈亏 -3.3%
- 空头浮盈亏 +4.8%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0109% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0069% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0058% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0053% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0069% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0085% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0061% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-12 21:07 @ 2.832 · 至今-11.8%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第2轮 · 76.17×
垂直爆发已疯 (168%)
OI$14.6M (峰值33%)
距本轮峰值78.4% · 32天
二轮风险低 · 9%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈BR 见顶前327天
30天腰斩概率0%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第2轮曾拉升76倍(垂直爆发168%),见顶后32天已崩78%,现价仍是最初起点的16.4倍
- 距本轮峰值78%,见顶后32天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h多头爆仓主导($0.13M,占74%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈9%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 1个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空