MAGMA 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-15 07:41 CST · 捉妖器
0.27497
-7.3% 24h
量 $38.3M
余震
观望
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/01 | 0.42704 | 0.48177 | 0.3666 | 0.38035 | -10.9% | 31.4% | 35,975K | 中阴 |
| 07/02 | 0.38034 | 0.5859 | 0.37359 | 0.53358 | +40.3% | 56.8% | 119,858K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.53358 | 0.83581 | 0.48245 | 0.80379 | +50.6% | 73.2% | 374,106K | 放量 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/04 | 0.80374 | 0.82555 | 0.50111 | 0.56978 | -29.1% | 64.7% | 230,402K | 大阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.56981 | 0.58479 | 0.44945 | 0.48496 | -14.9% | 30.1% | 92,148K | 中阴 |
| 07/06 | 0.48494 | 0.51113 | 0.434 | 0.44325 | -8.6% | 17.8% | 28,495K | 缩量 |
| 07/07 | 0.44322 | 0.44606 | 0.318 | 0.35952 | -18.9% | 40.3% | 77,514K | 中阴 |
| 07/08 | 0.35951 | 0.41287 | 0.311 | 0.36044 | +0.3% | 32.8% | 58,619K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/09 | 0.36043 | 0.44567 | 0.3508 | 0.44537 | +23.6% | 27.0% | 48,519K | 大阳 |
| 07/10 | 0.44518 | 0.44999 | 0.38188 | 0.41759 | -6.2% | 17.8% | 28,854K | 缩量 长下影 |
| 07/11 | 0.41756 | 0.42759 | 0.36 | 0.39205 | -6.1% | 18.8% | 19,393K | 缩量 |
| 07/12 | 0.39205 | 0.52985 | 0.30809 | 0.32193 | -17.9% | 72.0% | 164,882K | 中阴 长上影 |
| 07/13 | 0.32194 | 0.37765 | 0.2924 | 0.29967 | -6.9% | 29.2% | 87,166K | 长上影 |
| 07/14 | 0.29981 | 0.30795 | 0.24432 | 0.27497 | -8.3% | 26.0% | 141,315K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/15 | $6.3M | |
| 06/16 | $7.9M | +24.8% |
| 06/17 | $7.4M | -6.6% |
| 06/18 | $10.9M | +48.2% |
| 06/19 | $8.0M | -26.8% |
| 06/20 | $8.0M | -0.2% |
| 06/21 | $7.8M | -2.4% |
| 06/22 | $10.0M | +27.9% |
| 06/23 | $8.0M | -19.7% |
| 06/24 | $7.3M | -8.9% |
| 06/25 | $7.1M | -1.9% |
| 06/26 | $7.3M | +2.3% |
| 06/27 | $11.8M | +61.8% |
| 06/28 | $9.2M | -21.8% |
| 06/29 | $8.1M | -12.9% |
| 06/30 | $8.1M | +0.5% |
| 07/01 | $7.6M | -6.5% |
| 07/02 | $6.5M | -14.5% |
| 07/03 | $10.5M | +63.0% |
| 07/04 | $23.4M | +122.0% |
| 07/05 | $13.0M | -44.3% |
| 07/06 | $10.1M | -22.5% |
| 07/07 | $8.6M | -14.6% |
| 07/08 | $6.7M | -23.0% |
| 07/09 | $6.2M | -7.5% |
| 07/10 | $7.6M | +23.8% |
| 07/11 | $6.9M | -9.9% |
| 07/12 | $6.4M | -6.7% |
| 07/13 | $5.8M | -8.9% |
| 07/14 | $5.2M | -10.5% |
- 当前OI $5.2M,占近30日峰值的22%
- 近7天OI变化-22%
- 最近1日OI变化-11%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 45 | 38 | 124 | 107 | 0.393621 | 0.389565 |
| 07/12 12:52 | 多 | 41 | 35 | 85 | 116 | 0.398204 | 0.40823 |
| 07/12 16:39 | 多 | 45 | 44 | 141 | 157 | 0.446542 | 0.478194 |
| 07/12 20:51 | 空 | 47 | 55 | 183 | 206 | 0.367736 | 0.469039 |
| 07/13 01:06 | 多 | 46 | 61 | 188 | 216 | 0.421515 | 0.47838 |
| 07/13 05:52 | 空 | 50 | 58 | 211 | 203 | 0.329444 | 0.513104 |
| 07/13 10:52 | 空 | 61 | 55 | 233 | 217 | 0.303143 | 0.515281 |
| 07/13 15:22 | 空 | 63 | 50 | 228 | 216 | 0.347057 | 0.462562 |
| 07/13 20:06 | 多 | 44 | 65 | 150 | 178 | 0.333471 | 0.350488 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 多 | 42 | 66 | 136 | 191 | 0.341538 | 0.353377 |
| 07/14 05:07 | 空 | 40 | 62 | 134 | 167 | 0.339411 | 0.338059 |
| 07/14 09:37 | 多 | 48 | 50 | 149 | 171 | 0.331995 | 0.328826 |
| 07/14 14:37 | 多 | 43 | 58 | 176 | 179 | 0.276498 | 0.293281 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 多 | 60 | 42 | 195 | 161 | 0.272451 | 0.280943 |
| 07/14 23:37 | 多 | 49 | 52 | 172 | 178 | 0.264697 | 0.2752 |
- 数据跨度63小时(239个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 45→49(+4)
- 空头巨鲸 38→52(+14)
- 多头交易员 124→172(+48)
- 空头交易员 107→178(+71)
- 多头成本 0.3936→0.2647(-32.8%)
- 空头成本 0.3896→0.2752(-29.4%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +3.9%
- 空头浮盈亏 +0.1%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0080% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0164% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0553% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段余震
信号起始07-13 01:32 @ 0.37541 · 至今-26.7%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决WATCH · 观望
周期第1轮 · 10.03×
垂直爆发已疯 (88%)
OI$5.2M (峰值22%)
距本轮峰值67.1% · 11天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度100%
深盘锚定0%
类比≈FHE 见顶前106天
30天腰斩概率12%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升10倍(垂直爆发88%),见顶后11天已崩67%,现价仍是最初起点的3.3倍
- 距本轮峰值67%,见顶后11天,进入余震绞肉区
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.06M,占61%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 余震绞肉区,无明确方向/接近死透,观望
六、综合研判
信号统计: 1个看涨 vs 0个看跌
场景推演
余震归零
持续阴跌+OI不重建 → 持底仓空
二轮拉升
OI爆炸式重建+垂直反弹 → 立即平空