US 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-15 07:48 CST · 捉妖器
0.027043
+7.1% 24h
量 $14.9M
见顶·收割初期
见顶试空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/01 | 0.011481 | 0.013275 | 0.010403 | 0.012726 | +10.8% | 27.6% | 507,893K | 中阳 |
| 07/02 | 0.012728 | 0.018414 | 0.012528 | 0.017271 | +35.7% | 47.0% | 2,180,918K | 大阳 |
| 07/03 | 0.01726 | 0.018853 | 0.015456 | 0.017539 | +1.6% | 22.0% | 2,420,131K | 十字星 长下影 |
| 07/04 | 0.017541 | 0.01807 | 0.016555 | 0.017804 | +1.5% | 9.2% | 367,875K | 缩量 长下影 |
| 07/05 | 0.0178 | 0.017831 | 0.01637 | 0.016592 | -6.8% | 8.9% | 240,273K | 缩量 |
| 07/06 | 0.016594 | 0.024972 | 0.016207 | 0.02413 | +45.4% | 54.1% | 2,209,943K | 大阳 |
| 07/07 | 0.02414 | 0.024188 | 0.016992 | 0.019466 | -19.4% | 42.3% | 1,835,107K | 中阴 |
| 07/08 | 0.019471 | 0.020265 | 0.0172 | 0.017557 | -9.8% | 17.8% | 403,424K | 缩量 |
| 07/09 | 0.017559 | 0.03 | 0.016851 | 0.027276 | +55.3% | 78.0% | 3,385,902K | 大阳 ★新高 |
| 07/10 | 0.027277 | 0.029222 | 0.021871 | 0.024327 | -10.8% | 33.6% | 3,774,693K | 中阴 |
| 07/11 | 0.024325 | 0.024641 | 0.020385 | 0.021914 | -9.9% | 20.9% | 1,067,098K | |
| 07/12 | 0.021915 | 0.025476 | 0.020604 | 0.023384 | +6.7% | 23.6% | 1,269,948K | |
| 07/13 | 0.023384 | 0.025782 | 0.022864 | 0.02524 | +7.9% | 12.8% | 691,724K | |
| 07/14 | 0.025239 | 0.02745 | 0.024363 | 0.027043 | +7.1% | 12.7% | 574,343K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/15 | $6.4M | |
| 06/16 | $7.6M | +18.3% |
| 06/17 | $6.5M | -14.7% |
| 06/18 | $7.9M | +22.0% |
| 06/19 | $7.7M | -1.9% |
| 06/20 | $6.6M | -15.3% |
| 06/21 | $7.9M | +20.3% |
| 06/22 | $6.6M | -16.1% |
| 06/23 | $6.8M | +2.2% |
| 06/24 | $7.2M | +5.8% |
| 06/25 | $7.0M | -2.5% |
| 06/26 | $6.9M | -0.9% |
| 06/27 | $6.9M | +0.3% |
| 06/28 | $6.5M | -6.8% |
| 06/29 | $5.3M | -18.2% |
| 06/30 | $5.1M | -2.7% |
| 07/01 | $5.0M | -2.5% |
| 07/02 | $5.7M | +13.8% |
| 07/03 | $9.1M | +60.5% |
| 07/04 | $9.3M | +1.3% |
| 07/05 | $9.0M | -2.9% |
| 07/06 | $8.2M | -8.6% |
| 07/07 | $13.2M | +60.2% |
| 07/08 | $9.4M | -28.3% |
| 07/09 | $8.1M | -14.4% |
| 07/10 | $16.6M | +104.9% |
| 07/11 | $13.2M | -20.5% |
| 07/12 | $11.1M | -15.9% |
| 07/13 | $12.0M | +8.0% |
| 07/14 | $13.5M | +13.1% |
- 当前OI $13.5M,占近30日峰值的82%
- 近7天OI变化+43%
- OI快速增长——新仓持续涌入
- 最近1日OI变化+13%
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 43 | 68 | 136 | 168 | 0.0218098 | 0.0219541 |
| 07/12 12:52 | 空 | 51 | 58 | 155 | 159 | 0.0219476 | 0.0218053 |
| 07/12 16:39 | 空 | 50 | 64 | 151 | 174 | 0.0222485 | 0.0224971 |
| 07/12 20:51 | 空 | 58 | 58 | 162 | 167 | 0.0229459 | 0.0228004 |
| 07/13 01:06 | 多 | 46 | 62 | 146 | 163 | 0.0232971 | 0.0229731 |
| 07/13 05:52 | 多 | 58 | 55 | 157 | 164 | 0.023365 | 0.0234313 |
| 07/13 10:52 | 多 | 62 | 54 | 151 | 175 | 0.0238237 | 0.0239724 |
| 07/13 15:22 | 多 | 52 | 62 | 133 | 169 | 0.0239519 | 0.0239136 |
| 07/13 20:06 | 多 | 35 | 77 | 102 | 191 | 0.0242182 | 0.0241199 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 多 | 41 | 68 | 124 | 161 | 0.0243764 | 0.0244706 |
| 07/14 05:07 | 多 | 43 | 64 | 120 | 166 | 0.0244176 | 0.024543 |
| 07/14 09:37 | 多 | 44 | 58 | 120 | 157 | 0.0244525 | 0.0246888 |
| 07/14 14:37 | 多 | 36 | 52 | 104 | 156 | 0.0242635 | 0.0247509 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 多 | 43 | 47 | 126 | 150 | 0.0250238 | 0.0257039 |
| 07/14 23:37 | 多 | 38 | 45 | 105 | 157 | 0.0254939 | 0.0263821 |
- 数据跨度63小时(239个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 43→38(-5)
- 空头巨鲸 68→45(-23)
- 多头交易员 136→105(-31)
- 空头交易员 168→157(-11)
- 多头成本 0.02181→0.02549(+16.9%)
- 空头成本 0.02195→0.02638(+20.2%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +6.1%
- 空头浮盈亏 -2.5%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0363% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0292% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0159% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0378% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0462% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | -0.0012% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0364% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0175% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0422% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0230% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0414% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0428% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0824% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0094% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0153% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段见顶·收割初期
信号起始07-12 19:11 @ 0.024028 · 至今+12.6%
置信度low
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决SHORT · 见顶试空
周期第1轮 · 10.72×
垂直爆发已疯 (116%)
OI$13.5M (峰值82%)
距本轮峰值9.8% · 5天
价格可操纵度90%
深盘锚定10%
类比≈SYN 见顶当日附近
30天腰斩概率25%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第1轮曾拉升11倍(垂直爆发116%),见顶后5天已崩10%,现价仍是最初起点的9.7倍
- 距本轮峰值已10%,见顶后5天(第1轮,10.7×)
- OI停止创新高(占峰值82%)
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.04M,占65%)
- 近7日从低点反弹+54%,当心它再拉一轮(那时该平掉空单)
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 2个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 价涨OI涨:新仓涌入,杠杆驱动(同时做空燃料堆积)
- 阶段裁决:见顶试空
场景推演
确认见顶·主跌开始
OI持续下降+多头爆仓加速 → 加仓做空
假见顶·再创新高
OI重新上行+费率再转负 → 割裂止损认错