ZEREBRO 完整分析报告
生成于 2026-07-15 07:46 CST · 捉妖器
0.035948
+5.1% 24h
量 $1.6M
主跌·收网
继续做空
一、K线形态分析(近14日)
| 日期 | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 收盘 | 涨跌 | 振幅 | 量 | 标注 |
|---|
| 07/01 | 0.040674 | 0.041465 | 0.038183 | 0.039443 | -3.0% | 8.6% | 86,668K | |
| 07/02 | 0.039451 | 0.043389 | 0.037726 | 0.042312 | +7.3% | 15.0% | 94,183K | |
| 07/03 | 0.042276 | 0.044182 | 0.038236 | 0.03951 | -6.5% | 15.6% | 129,848K | ★新高 |
| 07/04 | 0.039492 | 0.040061 | 0.034608 | 0.035491 | -10.1% | 15.8% | 93,039K | 中阴 |
| 07/05 | 0.035473 | 0.039986 | 0.034902 | 0.037628 | +6.1% | 14.6% | 100,941K | |
| 07/06 | 0.037622 | 0.042468 | 0.036571 | 0.039365 | +4.6% | 16.1% | 202,351K | 长上影 |
| 07/07 | 0.039342 | 0.0424 | 0.037966 | 0.038152 | -3.0% | 11.7% | 115,587K | 长上影 |
| 07/08 | 0.038154 | 0.038637 | 0.035185 | 0.0362 | -5.1% | 9.8% | 55,533K | |
| 07/09 | 0.036223 | 0.038576 | 0.035688 | 0.037243 | +2.8% | 8.1% | 45,459K | |
| 07/10 | 0.037199 | 0.038235 | 0.035033 | 0.035667 | -4.1% | 9.1% | 39,664K | |
| 07/11 | 0.035672 | 0.0371 | 0.03458 | 0.035314 | -1.0% | 7.3% | 37,204K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/12 | 0.035321 | 0.036223 | 0.033836 | 0.03416 | -3.3% | 7.1% | 43,651K | |
| 07/13 | 0.03416 | 0.036604 | 0.034017 | 0.034274 | +0.3% | 7.6% | 54,721K | 十字星 长上影 |
| 07/14 | 0.03428 | 0.036491 | 0.033446 | 0.035948 | +4.9% | 9.1% | 46,211K | |
二、持仓量(OI)趋势
| 日期 | OI | 日变化 |
|---|
| 06/15 | $2.7M | |
| 06/16 | $2.5M | -6.8% |
| 06/17 | $2.4M | -5.0% |
| 06/18 | $3.6M | +50.7% |
| 06/19 | $8.1M | +126.6% |
| 06/20 | $8.7M | +7.4% |
| 06/21 | $7.8M | -10.7% |
| 06/22 | $6.6M | -14.4% |
| 06/23 | $6.0M | -10.2% |
| 06/24 | $5.8M | -2.7% |
| 06/25 | $5.5M | -5.9% |
| 06/26 | $5.3M | -3.2% |
| 06/27 | $4.6M | -12.6% |
| 06/28 | $5.0M | +9.2% |
| 06/29 | $6.6M | +31.2% |
| 06/30 | $5.8M | -11.9% |
| 07/01 | $6.1M | +4.6% |
| 07/02 | $5.8M | -5.8% |
| 07/03 | $6.1M | +6.6% |
| 07/04 | $5.7M | -6.6% |
| 07/05 | $4.9M | -14.6% |
| 07/06 | $5.3M | +8.3% |
| 07/07 | $5.6M | +6.4% |
| 07/08 | $5.4M | -4.2% |
| 07/09 | $5.0M | -6.6% |
| 07/10 | $5.1M | +2.1% |
| 07/11 | $4.8M | -6.5% |
| 07/12 | $4.8M | -1.0% |
| 07/13 | $4.6M | -3.8% |
| 07/14 | $4.5M | -1.0% |
- 当前OI $4.5M,占近30日峰值的52%
- 近7天OI变化-16%
- 最近1日OI变化-1%
三、聪明钱 · 巨鲸 & 交易员调仓
| 时间 | 侧 | 多鲸 | 空鲸 | 多员 | 空员 | 多成本 | 空成本 |
|---|
| 07/12 08:54 | 多 | 47 | 32 | 82 | 70 | 0.0355428 | 0.0359947 |
| 07/12 12:52 | 多 | 40 | 40 | 78 | 73 | 0.035405 | 0.0358476 |
| 07/12 16:39 | 多 | 35 | 47 | 77 | 87 | 0.0354164 | 0.0357848 |
| 07/12 20:51 | 多 | 47 | 35 | 93 | 72 | 0.0351943 | 0.0356357 |
| 07/13 01:06 | 多 | 41 | 40 | 97 | 68 | 0.0352299 | 0.0358118 |
| 07/13 05:52 | 多 | 37 | 42 | 93 | 71 | 0.0345872 | 0.0349483 |
| 07/13 10:52 | 空 | 45 | 32 | 104 | 67 | 0.0345608 | 0.0349836 |
| 07/13 15:22 | 空 | 37 | 43 | 98 | 78 | 0.0350573 | 0.0354917 |
| 07/13 20:06 | 空 | 43 | 40 | 99 | 74 | 0.0346463 | 0.0348488 |
| 07/14 00:21 | 空 | 37 | 44 | 98 | 78 | 0.0352695 | 0.0353441 |
| 07/14 05:07 | 空 | 40 | 42 | 97 | 78 | 0.0350991 | 0.0356135 |
| 07/14 09:37 | 空 | 39 | 42 | 87 | 90 | 0.0347849 | 0.0357076 |
| 07/14 14:37 | 空 | 27 | 56 | 71 | 110 | 0.0348421 | 0.0350914 |
| 07/14 18:52 | 多 | 31 | 52 | 73 | 104 | 0.0346964 | 0.0353219 |
| 07/14 23:37 | 空 | 34 | 48 | 72 | 103 | 0.0343078 | 0.0349557 |
- 数据跨度63小时(239个快照)
- 多头巨鲸 47→34(-13)
- 空头巨鲸 32→48(+16)
- 巨鲸从多头转向空头——聪明钱在赌反转
- 多头交易员 82→72(-10)
- 空头交易员 70→103(+33)
- 多头成本 0.03554→0.03431(-3.5%)
- 空头成本 0.03599→0.03496(-2.9%)
- 多头浮盈亏 +4.8%
- 空头浮盈亏 -2.8%
四、资金费率走势
| 时间 | 费率 | |
|---|
| 07/11 20:00 | 0.0247% | |
| 07/12 00:00 | 0.0264% | |
| 07/12 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/12 08:00 | 0.0133% | |
| 07/12 12:00 | 0.0221% | |
| 07/12 16:00 | 0.0292% | |
| 07/12 20:00 | 0.0091% | |
| 07/13 00:00 | 0.0054% | |
| 07/13 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/13 12:00 | 0.0054% | |
| 07/13 16:00 | 0.0095% | |
| 07/13 20:00 | 0.0065% | |
| 07/14 00:00 | 0.0065% | |
| 07/14 04:00 | 0.0051% | |
| 07/14 08:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/14 12:00 | 0.0215% | |
| 07/14 16:00 | 0.0098% | |
| 07/14 20:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 00:00 | 0.0050% | |
| 07/15 04:00 | 0.0050% | |
五、阶段研判 · 机会裁决
阶段主跌·收网
信号起始07-12 19:11 @ 0.035619 · 至今+0.9%
置信度medium
空单目标仓位0%
机会裁决SHORT · 继续做空
周期第3轮 · 9.28×
垂直爆发已疯 (97%)
OI$4.5M (峰值52%)
距本轮峰值35.4% · 24天
二轮风险低 · 5%
价格可操纵度79%
深盘锚定21%
类比≈GRIFFAIN 见顶后217天
30天腰斩概率25%
观察到的迹象
- 已暴涨又崩、还没死透:第3轮曾拉升9倍(垂直爆发97%),见顶后24天已崩35%,现价仍是最初起点的6.0倍
- 距本轮峰值35%,破位下行
- 费率已回中性/转正0.005%
- 近4h空头爆仓主导($0.02M,占79%)
- 二轮启动风险[低]≈5%:未见反弹动量,余震消退中
操作建议: 只观察、先不建仓:已暴涨崩过。盯它会不会再拉一轮(那是平空信号)还是彻底归零,别在这里追空(崩后反弹很容易把空单绞掉)
六、综合研判
信号统计: 0个看涨 vs 2个看跌
看跌 / 警惕信号
- 巨鲸从多头转向空头——聪明钱在赌反转
- 阶段裁决:继续做空
场景推演
继续下跌
OI持续崩+费率中性/正 → 持空
死猫跳反弹
技术性超跌反弹(1-3天)+OI未重建 → 反弹衰竭加空
二轮启动
OI重建+费率再转负+抬高低点 → 平空离场